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A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."